Lucky's Leafs · Five-Year Proforma
Interactive statements · ties to "Lucky's Leafs Cultivation Proforma — Lender Edition (Aug 2026).xlsx" · Confidential
Scenario
The base case: $900/lb blended — priced at the market's own structural floor (indoor marginal cost + $40 excise ⇒ ~$850–950/lb), ~38% of NJ's Sept-'25 print — industry-average yield, the 3.5-acre outdoor field every season at the 150,000 sq ft single-license cap.
Assumptions — drag to stress-test
$900
2,000
$200
$40
26%
1.85×
One outdoor cycle ($4.62M) vs $2.495M land
$2.85M
Year-1 net income
$14.23M
5-yr cumulative net income
$15.17M
Year-5 ending cash
None
Additional capital required — self-funding holds
| Line item | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pounds sold | 7,000 | 7,000 | 7,000 | 7,000 | 7,000 |
| Outdoor price ($/lb) | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 | $900 |
| Revenue | $6,300,000 | $6,300,000 | $6,300,000 | $6,300,000 | $6,300,000 |
| Cash COGS | ($1,400,000) | ($1,400,000) | ($1,400,000) | ($1,400,000) | ($1,400,000) |
| Gross profit | $4,900,000 | $4,900,000 | $4,900,000 | $4,900,000 | $4,900,000 |
| SG&A | ($628,000) | ($628,000) | ($628,000) | ($628,000) | ($628,000) |
| Harmony 2% transfer tax | ($126,000) | ($126,000) | ($126,000) | ($126,000) | ($126,000) |
| NJ SEEF excise ($40/lb) | ($280,000) | ($280,000) | ($280,000) | ($280,000) | ($280,000) |
| EBITDA | $3,866,000 | $3,866,000 | $3,866,000 | $3,866,000 | $3,866,000 |
| Depreciation | ($21,000) | ($21,000) | ($21,000) | ($21,000) | ($21,000) |
| EBIT | $3,845,000 | $3,845,000 | $3,845,000 | $3,845,000 | $3,845,000 |
| Income tax | ($999,700) | ($999,700) | ($999,700) | ($999,700) | ($999,700) |
| NET INCOME | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 |
| Cumulative net income | $2,845,300 | $5,690,600 | $8,535,900 | $11,381,200 | $14,226,500 |
$ actual · Base ties cell-for-cell to the lender-edition workbook (data room 4.1). SEEF charged on every pound sold; SG&A = $250k + 6% of revenue; Harmony 2% on receipts; depreciation straight-line over 10 years starting the year after placement.
| Line item | Yr 0 | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-0 capitalization (facility net proceeds — 0.1) | $3,725,000 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Land acquisition | ($2,495,000) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Site development (capitalized) | ($210,000) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Formation expense (licensing, acq. costs) | ($185,000) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | — | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 | $2,845,300 |
| Add back: depreciation | — | $21,000 | $21,000 | $21,000 | $21,000 | $21,000 |
| ENDING CASH | $835,000 | $3,701,300 | $6,567,600 | $9,433,900 | $12,300,200 | $15,166,500 |
Self-funding holds. Each season is paid for by the harvest before it, with no new capital; cash never goes below $835,000 at year-end. Intra-year seasonality is covered by the ~$500k harvest line (Year-1 Cash tab).
| Year-end | Yr 0 | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $835,000 | $3,701,300 | $6,567,600 | $9,433,900 | $12,300,200 | $15,166,500 |
| Land (at cost) | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 | $2,495,000 |
| Net PP&E | $210,000 | $189,000 | $168,000 | $147,000 | $126,000 | $105,000 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | $3,540,000 | $6,385,300 | $9,230,600 | $12,075,900 | $14,921,200 | $17,766,500 |
| Year-0 capitalization | $3,725,000 | $3,725,000 | $3,725,000 | $3,725,000 | $3,725,000 | $3,725,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($185,000) | $2,660,300 | $5,505,600 | $8,350,900 | $11,196,200 | $14,041,500 |
| TOTAL EQUITY | $3,540,000 | $6,385,300 | $9,230,600 | $12,075,900 | $14,921,200 | $17,766,500 |
| Check (A − E) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Land carried at cost. Retained earnings = cumulative net income less $185k Year-0 formation expense. Assets − (paid-in capital + retained earnings) must equal $0 in every year.
— defaults to year-0 ending cash under the facility's use of proceeds: net $3,725,000 less land, site development, and formation costs = $835,000 (0.1). Edit to stress the trough.
| May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grow-cost spend | ($112,000) | ($98,000) | ($98,000) | ($112,000) | ($140,000) | ($350,000) | ($280,000) | ($70,000) | ($42,000) | ($28,000) | ($42,000) | ($28,000) |
| SEEF on sales | — | — | — | — | — | ($14,000) | ($70,000) | ($70,000) | ($56,000) | ($42,000) | ($19,600) | ($8,400) |
| Sales receipts | — | — | — | — | — | $315,000 | $1,575,000 | $1,575,000 | $1,260,000 | $945,000 | $441,000 | $189,000 |
| Cash balance | $723,000 | $625,000 | $527,000 | $415,000 | $275,000 | $226,000 | $1,451,000 | $2,886,000 | $4,048,000 | $4,923,000 | $5,302,400 | $5,455,000 |
No trough — pre-funded working capital of $835,000 carries the season. Season-end crop cash: $5.46M. Before SG&A and income taxes.
$5.00M
Facility (gross) · 15% · 18-month term · interest-only
$3.73M
Net proceeds to the plan (0.1 use of proceeds)
$1.12M
Funded interest reserve — the loan services itself; no operating cash to debt service pre-harvest
$62,500
Monthly interest, paid from the reserve
0.89×
Crop cash by month 18 vs the facility — this scenario
| Payoff stack at month 18 — Base case | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Crop cash received by month 18 | $4,439,400 | ~97% of season receipts, less grow cost and excise · 0.89× the facility |
| + Extraction-grade trim (not modeled) | $150,000 – $250,000 | industry average for the field; excluded from every modeled figure on purpose |
| + Reserve freed by prepaying at par from ~month 13 | Applied to principal | each early paydown shrinks the remaining interest bill; the surplus reserve goes to payoff (schedule in 0.2) |
| + Final spring receipts | $189,000 | the last ~3% of season receipts, landing by April |
| Repayment | One harvest cycle — the stack above retires the facility inside or at the 18-month term. | |
Month-by-month at your current assumptions · sweeps at par from first receipts · interest paid from the funded reserve
| Facility month | Receipts | Free crop cash | Swept to principal | Interest (from reserve) | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m1–m12 · close, license, build, plant | — | — | — | $750,000 | $5,000,000 |
| m13 · Oct | $315,000 | ($101,333) | — | $62,500 | $5,000,000 |
| m14 · Nov | $1,575,000 | $1,172,667 | $1,172,667 | $62,500 | $3,827,333 |
| m15 · Dec | $1,575,000 | $1,382,667 | $1,382,667 | $47,842 | $2,444,667 |
| m16 · Jan | $1,260,000 | $1,109,667 | $1,109,667 | $30,558 | $1,335,000 |
| m17 · Feb | $945,000 | $822,667 | $822,667 | $16,687 | $512,333 |
| m18 · Mar | $441,000 | $327,067 | $327,067 | $6,404 | $185,267 |
| At maturity the remaining reserve ($148,508) applies to principal, leaving $36,758 — against $150,000–$250,000 of unmodeled trim and April's final receipts ($100,267 net). | |||||
Grow-cost spend follows the season curve (heaviest May–October, carried by the $835,000 of cash on hand until receipts start); SG&A is charged monthly; a negative month sweeps nothing and is carried by operating cash, never the loan. Drag any slider above and this schedule recomputes.
Repaid from one harvest cycle. The clock works because receipts land in facility months ~13–18: close months 0–2, license & site build 2–8, plant ~May, harvest ~Oct, receipts Oct–Apr. Interest never touches operating cash — the funded reserve carries it end to end. Refinance (including NJEDA's documented cannabis program) is the backstop for the conservative case, not the plan.
Crop cash = harvest receipts less grow cost and excise, before SG&A and income tax (both covered inside Year-1 net income — Income Statement tab). Full sizing and the month-by-month reserve schedule: documents 0.1 and 0.2 in the data room.